TEHRAN- Fereydoun Berkashli, an international analyst in the oil and energy sector, believes that disruption in the Strait of Hormuz paralyzes global economy.

In an interview with IRNA, the analyst said that a new storm is being shaped in the Persian Gulf, when oil prices have sharply risen following the US-Israel attack on Iran.

The wars in the West Asia over the past decades have always led to rising global oil prices, and reactions have been severe specially in the Persian Gulf region, he stated, adding that the US-Israel attack on Iran on February 28 sent a new wave to the market.

Despite the sharp rise in the prices, the market reaction was weaker than expected, the analyst noted, and commented that the severe condition seems not still understood.

He continued that oil is produced in the West Asia, but its price is set in the exchange markets of America and Europe; the global oil market receives its analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris, the entity that its addresses are the world’s main oil and gas consumers, so the analysis of big consumers plays determining role in the market status.

The international analyst believes that the key factor ignored in the geo-economic calculations of the US is the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 million barrels of oil passes, of which 80 percent goes to Asia. China, India, Pakistan, and ASEAN countries are highly dependent on the West Asia oil, the Europe has small share of the Persian Gulf oil, but there is the global independence of refineries and need for the oil and gas products.

He underscored that any interruption in the Strait of Hormuz can paralyze the global economy.

Meanwhile, the Iranian Oil, Gas, and Petrochemical Products Exporters Union (OPEX) spokesman and oil and energy market analyst, pointing to the dependence of 700 refineries worldwide on oil produced in the Persian Gulf, believes: The world's dependence on the Strait of Hormuz is not limited to crude oil; gas condensates, liquefied natural gas (LNG), refined petroleum products, and a portion of the region's mineral and petrochemical exports also pass through this route.

Seyed Hamid Hosseini stated in an interview with IRNA, explaining the Islamic Republic of Iran's strategy in managing the Strait of Hormuz to counter the American-Zionist coalition's aggression against our country: Recent developments in the Persian Gulf and the disruption of oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz have once again highlighted the vital role of this strategic passageway in the global economy; a passageway through which approximately 20 million barrels of oil pass daily. A serious disruption could place unprecedented pressure on energy markets and global supply chains.

He explained: In many wars, the initial reactions appear on the battlefield, but the deeper consequences usually manifest themselves in markets, supply chains, and the strategic calculations of governments. The recent aggression by the US and Israel against our country is no exception to this rule.

He added: Although at the beginning of this war, it was thought to be a quick and limited military conflict, increasing signs indicate that this crisis could become a far more decisive test, not only for the global economy but also for the stability of the international order.

Hosseini, stating that war economies usually form in two stages, the first being immediate and short-term, added: In this stage, markets react sharply, energy prices rise, panic buying intensifies, and investors move towards safe-haven assets.

He stated: The second stage, which emerges in the medium term, raises a more fundamental question: Are the involved parties truly prepared for a long-term conflict? In this stage, military power alone is no longer what matters; economic endurance, social resilience, and the ability to adapt to sustained disruptions will be decisive.

Hosseini added: If the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz lasts more than a few days and extends into the medium term, the economic pressure will quickly transfer from energy markets to the entire global economy. This is because energy remains one of the main components of the cost structure for goods and services, and a sharp increase in oil and gas prices typically creates an inflationary wave, raises production costs for manufacturers, and reduces consumers' purchasing power.

He noted: For energy-importing economies, this shock is doubly painful; production becomes more expensive while demand decreases.

Hosseini further stated that according to the latest developments as of March 13, 2026, reports indicate that tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has sharply decreased, and the oil flow has almost been reduced to a 'trickle'. According to a report by the International Energy Agency, about 20 million barrels per day of oil supply flow – equivalent to about 20% of global supply – has been disrupted.

He acknowledged: Meanwhile, oil prices have jumped again, exceeding $100 per barrel; a situation some analysts describe as the largest supply disruption in the history of the oil market.
When Trump was planning to attack Iran for the second time in less than nine months—and again in the middle of nuclear negotiations— he was warned about the potentially devastating consequences of the day after, according to reports by U.S. media.

His military and economic advisers cautioned that if Iran chose to constrict navigation through the Strait of Hormuz in response, forcing the waterway open again would not be easy for U.S. naval forces, which could face Iranian missile and drone attacks, the same reports add. Trump allegedly replied that Iran’s government would collapse before it could move to “shut” the strait.

The U.S. president nevertheless moved forward with his plans.

Iran announced heavy restrictions on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz on March 1. 

Oil prices climbed above $104 per barrel on Friday, stock markets in the United States and across the Persian Gulf have continued to incur heavy losses, and consumers around the world—including in the U.S.—are anxiously watching energy prices rise with no end in sight.

But this is not all. In his first address to Iran and the region since assuming leadership, the new Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei—the son of the martyred Leader—said the Strait of Hormuz must remain under Iran’s control. He also declared that Iran may open additional fronts “where the enemy does not have experience and is vulnerable.”

MA